By Rustam Shah Mohmand
Coronavirus has spread its tentacles across the globe. The
phenomenal speed with which the pandemic has spread has caught scientists by
surprise.
The disease has affected lives, business, trade,
productivity and travel. National incomes have been impacted, besides the
invisible cost to education, health and the GDP of all countries. The virus has
upended the world like never before in recent history. The United States is not
immune to the harmful implications of the deadly virus. It is going to invest
an astounding amount in dealing with the effects of the pandemic. Such an
expenditure in trillions of dollars will cause severe economic problems. Will
the US then be in a position to continue providing more than 6 billion dollars
annually to Afghanistan to keep its fragile government running?
This inability to keep a government afloat by
not being able to deliver the needed resources presents yet a new challenge to
the US and Afghan government.
A post-pandemic world order will substantially
change the political landscape of the whole world. A reappraisal of policy on
Afghanistan is just one of the many fallouts of a changing world order.
The US will confront new emerging realities by
deciding to withdraw its forces or most of them. More importantly, it will make
its intention clear to the Kabul government. It can no longer afford to support
the country financially to the extent that it used to for the last several
years.This will inject an element of urgency into the ongoing peace process.
Under pressure from Washington, Ashraf Ghani will have to embrace ground
realities and give up his attitude of belligerence now that the situation has
changed.
This will present an opportunity to the US to
begin a slow transformation that is premised on the mainstreaming of the
Taliban on the one hand and ensuring that the transition towards a
multi-ethnic, broad-based government takes place smoothly on the other. This will
also pose many challenges.
But a world that is threatened by a powerful pandemic and a
frightening economic slowdown will mandate countries to adopt more pragmatic,
down to earth policies in breaking the stalemates in dispute resolution.
Not just the US and Afghan government, but the
Taliban too will have to show more flexibility. The group will be an important
and dominant component of any new dispensation, but such a situation will
demand the Taliban show more tolerance and more accommodation to other groups
or factions. Taliban will have to announce a general amnesty for all,
across the board, except those against whom there are documented evidence of
having initiated, committed or abetted in war crimes or crimes against
humanity. The announcement of general amnesty will generate a new spirit of
forgive and forget, and foster more cooperation and help in reducing the trust
deficit. It will create new dynamics for a new beginning.
The path towards this scenario emerging will be
difficult to negotiate because the pro status quo forces will desperately try
to hang on to their powers, resources and political clout. The US role will be
crucial in helping to create conditions that are conducive to a grand
reconciliation. Once the US makes its position clear on a number of issues
relating to a sustainable transition, the groups and factions opposing the
mainstreaming of the Taliban will get a clear message. They will come around to
accepting the new arrangement for a host of reasons—to save their positions, to
find some relevance in the new system and to present a new face to the public.
In the political culture of this region, that will not be difficult.
The prisoner swap that is likely to happen soon
will set the ball rolling for an accelerated mainstreaming of Taliban. Much
will depend on how the three main stake holders—the US, the Kabul government
and the Taliban play their cards. But other factions and leaders — Sayyaf,
Dostum, Ismail Khan, Din Mohammad etc cannot be ignored. They will have to be
part of the deal.
The pandemic has brought widespread suffering
and misery to the whole world. Alarmed by the prospect of more such disasters
to strike in the future, leaders must get their act together and endeavour to
find lasting solutions to the myriad problems that divide nations.
Afghanistan’s war was as unnecessary as it was brutal. The country is on the
verge of chaos if a quick solution is not found to the question of a
reconciliation. Failure is not an option. People want peace desperately in a
country where unemployment has reached more than 45 per cent; where more than
forty thousand people take the risk and leave the country every month, where
opium production has reached 9,000 tons a year and where clean drinking water
is available only to a handful of people. It is a country that is water
stressed and has millions of poor who live below the poverty line. The number
of heroin addicts has crossed two million and is counting.
These realities should force the leaders to
urgently seek a solution to the long conflict. The fatigue syndrome and the
pandemic provide an opportunity. Let this not be wasted.
(Rustam Shah Mohmand is a specialist of
Afghanistan and Central Asian Affairs. He has served as Pakistan’s ambassador
to Afghanistan and also held position of Chief Commissioner Refugees for a
decade.)
