By Salman Bashir
On the invitation
of President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Washington DC on a
three-day state visit starting from Saturday. The visit was initiated and
announced by the White House and is an important gesture towards Pakistan by
the Trump administration.
But here is the big question: What has prompted Trump to move away from a
coercive approach to a cooperative one towards Islamabad in a rather quick turn
of heart?
To his credit, Trump was the first to recognize that the real interests of the
US and Pakistan had begun to converge. He prioritized a draw-down of US forces
from Afghanistan, correctly
concluding that the war now entering its 18th year was unwinnable and that
there was a need to work out a political settlement. For him this is a
national, political and electoral priority. The US establishment continued to
strongly resist such a course and Pakistan used its geographical proximity and
limited influence with the Afghans, notably the Afghan Taliban, to facilitate
US-Taliban Talks.
An Afghan political
settlement signed and sealed at the White House under the auspices of President
Trump will be a monumental moment for the cause of durable peace in Afghanistan
and the region as a whole. The timelines are dictated by US electoral
considerations and the search for a fair and binding agreement has lately
intensified.
A notable aspect is the emerging great power consensus on Afghanistan arrived
at in Beijing recently between Russia, China and the US to which Pakistan was
invited. Zalmay Khalilzad, US special envoy to Afghanistan, also sounds
optimistic about an all-Afghan settlement.
The turbulent security environment in South Asia is also a matter of concern
for the US. Although India figures high in the US Indo-Pacific strategy
directed against China, Trump is not particularly fascinated by Prime Minister
Modi. India has opted for the Russian S-400 missile system much to the
disappointment of the US. Moreover, Trump does not view the Indian
protectionist attitude on trade as the sign of a great partnership. This is why
he did not shy away from using his famous twitter tool to chastise India even
as secretary of state Mike Pompeo was in New Delhi trying to cajole the Indians.
So far, Modi’s second administration has not responded to Pakistan’s gestures
for normalization and the improvement of relations. It has continued to revel
in a delusional policy of isolating Pakistan and is bent on using hard power
against the Kashmiris. The Indians seem to have been counting on their growing
relations with the US to take an adamant stance vis-a-vis Pakistan. But
Trump, far more than the US strategic community, has been able to read the
situation correctly.
The renewal of Pakistan-US relations will hopefully be beneficial in moderating
the Indian policy calculus concerning Pakistan. The revival of South Asian
Economic Cooperation under SAARC will also help open up a two billion strong
market for the US and the world. Already, Pakistan is conceptually onboard with
the US on an enlightened vision for South Asia’s future.
Pakistan wants to turn a page in its bilateral relations with the US. It is not
looking for economic assistance but mutually beneficial trade and investment
ties. Energy cooperation, including gas imports and exploration, development
and production of oil and gas fields in Pakistan are again areas of mutual
benefit. Islamabad has had a long security and defense partnership with the US
which was interrupted for the last two years.
The geography of Pakistan as the pivot between South Asia and energy rich
regions of Central Asia and the Middle East as well as its rich cultural and
historic ties with these regions make it a useful piece in positing US
interests in this vast region. An exciting near-term objective is to sketch out
Pakistan-US cooperation for post-settlement security, and economic stability
architecture for Afghanistan.
It is certainly to President Trump’s credit that he proceeds on the basis of
his instincts, which in most instances are correct and more in tune with the
new world. He is therefore way ahead of the US bureaucracy. It is true that
Trump’s view of President Putin, President Xi Jinping and Chairman Kim Jong Un
is at variance with that of the US strategic community or mainstream media. In
his quest to ‘make America great again,’ he has taken bold decisions, which are
unconventional but also reveal the limits of conventional thinking in a
fast-changing global society.
Similarly, under the ethos of a ‘Naya’ (new) Pakistan, Prime Minister Imran
Khan has to his credit, sincerity and commitment to changing the country’s
society and governance for the better. In their own right, both leaders are
celebrities and their personal chemistry should match well in forging what both
sides have called ‘an enduring partnership.’
(Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India. Twitter: @SalmanB_Isb)